Prediction of the Number of New Students Using the Arima Time Series Model Case Study at Stmik Widya Cipta Dharma

Authors

  • Eko Jheremy Oktavianus Teknik Informatika, STMIK Widya Cipta Dharma
  • Pitrasacha Adytia Sistem Informasi, STMIK Widya Cipta Dharma
  • Muhammad Ibnu Sa’ad Sistem Informasi, STMIK Widya Cipta Dharma

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.46984/pv7pv465

Keywords:

ARIMA, Time Series, Forecasting, Freshmen, EViews

Abstract

Planning for new student admissions is an important aspect in university management because it is closely related to strategic decision-making and institutional resource allocation. This study aims to estimate the number of new students in the Informatics and Information Systems Engineering Study Program at STMIK Widya Cipta Dharma using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. The data used is secondary data obtained from PDDIKTI with a period of 2015-2025. The analysis process was carried out through several stages, namely stationary testing using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) method, model identification through Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF), parameter estimation, diagnostic tests, and forecasting processes. The results showed that the best model obtained was ARIMA (0,1,0) after first-order differentiation. The model produces residual that meets the assumption of white noise and is normally distributed. The forecast results show a tendency to decrease the number of new students in the 2026–2028 period. The model evaluation showed a very good level of accuracy in the Informatics Engineering Study Program with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 9.64% and quite good in the Information Systems Study Program of 24.88%. Thus, the ARIMA model (0,1,0) is considered effective in supporting the planning of new student admissions in a more measurable and systematic manner.

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Published

2026-06-30

Issue

Vol. 30 No. 1 (2026): June 2026

Section

Articles

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Copyright (c) 2026 Eko Jheremy Oktavianus, Pitrasacha Adytia, Muhammad Ibnu Sa’ad

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How to Cite

“Prediction of the Number of New Students Using the Arima Time Series Model Case Study at Stmik Widya Cipta Dharma” (2026) Sebatik, 30(1), pp. 173–182. doi:10.46984/pv7pv465.